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Category:Tyrese Gibson albumsThe problems for the Democratic party in Florida are compounded by Hillary Clinton’s unfavorable ratings. They’re in the mid-40s. This is bad, given that she’s running against Donald Trump, who has a worse disapproval rating than she does. Florida is also a heavily Hispanic state, which has the potential to hurt Democrats badly. And for Democrats, Hispanic turnout is generally low, due to that state’s new voting restrictions.
But there’s an interesting wrinkle in the 2016 election. Florida is a “purple” state, whose electoral college weight has varied over the years. Over the past four decades, Republicans have only won it three times. Yet all three times, that was a presidential election year, in 1980, 1988, and 2004, when George W. Bush was the nominee.
On the other hand, Democrats have held it for every presidential election year since 1988, except 2000. And that’s because of Florida’s propensity to go for third-party candidates. In those races — from 1984 to 1996 — it went for Republicans every single time. In the three elections since, it went for George W. Bush.
Now it’s time for the unusual. It’s true that Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in the latest polls. But if she were to lose the popular vote in this state by 2 percent, she would end up with an electoral college margin that would be the biggest for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter’s victory over Ronald Reagan in 1980. The last time a Democratic presidential candidate won this state by less than 2 percent was Bill Clinton’s win over George H.W. Bush in 1992. And the last time a candidate won by 2 percent or less of the vote in Florida was in 1916, when Woodrow Wilson won it by 0.4 percent.
So the potential for a “blue” swing here is be359ba680
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